My Predictions for the 2011 Academy Awards

If there is one thing that marks this Academy Awards ceremony, it is unpredictability. I honestly have no idea what will win some of the bigger categories. My mind is divided by the strong candidates. This is a good thing – I hate when there are “locks” in any awards. It makes the outcome rather boring.

In addition, there is something more important here – genuinely great films. In the past, Best Picture winners have gone on to be forgotten (how many of you have seen Slumdog Millionaire since it won? Answer me honestly). But I believe there are at least four instant classics (Black Swan, The Social Network, The King’s Speech, and Inception) in the running. There are some other great films (The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, True Grit) and some flawed films (The Fighter, Toy Story 3) in there, but I like the variance. It makes the competition that much more fascinating. I have a feeling this will be one of the more interesting ceremonies in recent years.

Best Picture: It will either be The Social Network or The King’s Speech. If you made me pick one, I would personally go with The Social Network, but I have a feeling that selection will come back to haunt me.

Best Director: Yes, I am fully aware that Tom Hooper won the DGA award, but I still do not think that he will win the Oscar. David Fincher has won both the Golden Globe AND the BAFTA award. Plus, he has been nominated before and his direction was far more acclaimed than Hooper’s in the reviews. Hooper always felt like more of a hired hand on The King’s Speech. Fincher was a director with a vision.

Best Actor: Colin Firth, don’t you think? He has utterly dominated all of the award ceremonies and this is the one of the few awards I am sure about.

Best Actress: Personally, I would like to see Annette Bening finally win an Oscar, but I doubt it will happen. Natalie Portman has also dominated other awards shows (including the Golden Globes) and did give a phenomenal performance in the film.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale. I had some problems with The Fighter but his performance was not one of them. I have a feeling he will win The Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress: Hmmm…frankly none of the nominees stick out in my mind. I would say Amy Adams deserves it the most, but Helena Bonham Carter will probably walk away with the award, given the sheer number of nominations The King’s Speech has. I do want to say that Hailee Steinfeld’s nomination in this category is undeserved. She DESERVED to be nominated for Best Actress.

Best Original Screenplay: People (except Christopher Hitchens) will say that it will go to The King’s Speech. I believe it will go to Inception as an apology to Christopher Nolan. If anyone needs an apology from the Academy, it’s Christopher Nolan. Even they recognize that. Don’t believe me? Well, why do you think they expanded the list of Best Picture Nominees from five to ten if not to address the enormous public backlash for the fact The Dark Knight was ignored. I am not sure how I feel about “we’re sorry” Oscars (like rabbits, they just seem to create more of each other) but I also believe that Inception represents some of Nolan’s most creative work and he deserves recognition for it.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network. No contest.

The ceremony is tonight at 8.

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